Intel: Déjà vu all over again?

TheStreet.com reported today that a $2b investment from Intel may revive the Sprint-Clearwire WiMAX joint venture.

Can you say déjà vu all over again?

One word: Cometa.

The vaunted joint venture, founded in late 2002 and backed by Intel, AT&T and IBM, with venture backing from Apax and 3i, Cometa had grand plans to roll out 20,000 Wi-Fi hotspots by 2004, so that people nationwide would be no more than a five minute walk from one.

In a Wi-Fi Planet article, one of the founders is quoted as saying: "If we knew all about where demand for wireless broadband access is going to end up, it would be too late to start the company. Clearly, there's a leap of faith required here.”

In a stunningly prescient comment later in the article, Marcos Lara, founder and managing director of Public Internet Project, points to the failure of wireless Internet access provider Ricochet as a cautionary tale: “My point is, the model for Ricochet was no different.”

Eighteen months later, despite the backing of 3 heavyweights, Cometa quietly fizzled out, closing its doors in May 2004.

But here we are again, with Intel, Clearwire and Sprint trying to drag WiMAX, kicking and screaming, up the technology hype curve to the peak of inflated expectations. But like Groundhog Day, we’ve already lived through this twice already. Maybe the third times the charm, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

It’s not a question of technology; it’s a function of business model.

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter

(martin.suter (at) iplicensing.net)

 

 

Comments

[Future of Less]

The contrast with Asia is always useful. South Korea's version of WiMAX, called WiBro, has been rolled out. And, like the United States, rolled out by existing mobile networks operators (MNOs). Those same MNOs are also offering 3.5G HSDPA with great results, both technically and in terms of revenue. As for WiBro - not so much.

Wireless will be the dominant voice and data communications technology moving forward. Less clear is what will become of our cellular networks. Should HSDPA networks continue to do well in Japan and Korea, that technology will likely dominate the Asian region. It is possible – maybe likely – that WiMAX will be more successful in the United States than in Asia precisely because our cellular networks are so far behind those in Asia. Americans may need WiMAX to get the kind of data rates Asians will get from HSDPA.