Disruptive Tendencies

Wireless Bull

(Originally posted at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2009/01/wireless-bull.aspx )

First off, I should clarify that’s “bull” as in bullish, not the other kind! With doom and gloom at every turn, I think it’s worth noting that the glass really is half-full in segments of wireless right now, especially Wi-Fi.

Chris Silva from Forrester Research recently posted a blog from CES called, “Wi-Fi: The Only Network You Need?”, in which he describes how Wi-Fi is becoming the de facto wireless technology of choice for personal area networks. Even though my focus is at the other end of the Wi-Fi spectrum (no pun intended), this is great news, as it will lead to even broader proliferation of devices and form factors. Already, companies like Eye-Fi are Wi-Fi-enabling cameras, turning them into mobile broadband devices. Furthermore, they have a deal with Wayport (now part of AT&T Inc.) that automatically uploads your pictures to any social networking site wherever there’s a Wayport access point in range.

More device types mean more demand for cheap, ubiquitous bandwidth.

Then the Wi-Fi Alliance came out this week to report “in 2008, Wi-Fi chipsets were up 26 percent year-on-year to 387 million.” Highest growth areas are mobile devices — smartphones, netbooks and media devices. Of particular interest is that In-Stat “expects the most resilient Wi-Fi products to be dual-mode handsets. ...” This is simply further proof that there is industry-wide momentum behind Wi-Fi. I don’t think it’s too contentious to say that in 2009, Wi-Fi finally will become “need-to-have” in all devices, much as it previously has in laptops.

More devices, particularly mobile devices, mean more demand for cheap, ubiquitous bandwidth.

Over the holidays, TechWorld in the U.K. ran a story that headlined “Wi-Fi beats iPod in geek survey”, in which they published the results of a survey in a British magazine. “A clear majority (35.5 percent) opted for wireless Internet with the iPod ranked at No. 5 with only 5.6 percent of the respondents favoring it.” And while I love my Wi-Fi, I love my iPod and iPhone because they have Wi-Fi! Apple has created a device, a platform and an ecosystem that exposes the mobile Internet in a way that it never had been experienced before. However, as many have noted, iPhone performance over cellular can be hit or miss. I have likened it to driving a Ferrari down a dirt road, while I am able to crank it up with my iPod over Wi-Fi.

There are many other data points that confirm that Wi-Fi’s time has come. It’s seldom that you find the planets aligning as they have in 2009: a mature, low-cost, proven technology ... broad consumer acceptance and experience ... widely deployed ... low barriers to entry for service providers ... and innovative ecosystems. Even in good times, it doesn’t get any better!

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks, a provider of broadband mesh solutions for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 4.9 GHz Public Safety and 5.9 GHz ITS networks. Previously, Martin was the CEO at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building several high profile alliances with and for leading technology companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com, BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Netscape and Sun.

 

A Cell for all Reasons

(Originally posted at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2009/01/a-cell-for-all-reasons.aspx )

Fortunately, service providers and technology vendors understand the principles previously described. Typically, a network is deployed for coverage in the first instance, by using large (macro) cells. These tend to be mounted on towers with high transmit power and highly sensitive antenna arrays to hear the low powered “whisperers” at the edge of coverage. Of note, however, is that while published 3G data rates (HSDPA) may claim to be in the 1.8mbps to 14.4mbps range, the “real” capacity throughout the cell of a 3G macro-cell base station is around 10mbps, meaning that there’s 10mbps to share across all of the users in the coverage area. Even the much vaunted 4G, with the first release of LTE offering data rates of over 320mbps for downlink and over 170mbps for uplink, has an estimated capacity per macro-cell of ~45mbps. This means that the performance averaged across all users will not (cannot) approach the types of speeds being talked about loosely in the press.

As user density increases, it becomes necessary to add capacity to the system. This is done by sub-dividing macro cells into smaller micro and picocells. Average data rates increase, as more users are able to transmit and receive at higher modulation rates (because they’re closer to the “bullseye”). System capacity increases as a multiple of the [number of cells per cell capacity]. What this means is that it is possible to deliver far greater capacities over a comparable area (greater than 1gbps per square mile!) by shifting to a micro-cell-based network design. But what it also means is that there is a need to have a backhaul strategy that supports both this level of capacity and that which is implementable in the physical location of the micro-cell nodes.

At the complete other end of the spectrum is the emergence of the femtocell. Think of this as a combination of a Linksys style gateway/router with an HSxPA, WiMAX or LTE access radio. The rationale behind this is to extend 5-bar performance indoor, to users in their homes or offices. End users will connect this to their existing cable or DSL connections and be able to use their LTE devices indoor, much as they do with Wi-Fi today. Whether customers feel a need to deploy cellular femtocells when they already have Wi-Fi deployed is an open question and one deserving of consideration.

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks, a provider of broadband mesh solutions for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 4.9 GHz Public Safety and 5.9 GHz ITS networks. Previously, Martin was the CEO at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building several high profile alliances with and for leading technology companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com, BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Netscape and Sun.