(Originally posted at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2009/04/500-percent.aspx )
During his CTIA keynote, Ivan Seidenberg, CEO of Verizon Communications, expressed his excitement “about the next generation of wireless – the one that will usher in growth that could see penetration rates of more than 500 percent for the mobile industry.” Other Verizon execs were equally giddy at the various breakout sessions that I attended.
Toasters, fridges – LTE is going to solve world hunger. Imagine the stickiness! How likely is subscriber defection if consumers need to replace their home appliances?
Thirteen years ago, at the inaugural JavaOne Conference in 1996, Scott McNeely launched Sun’s vision for Java, a lightweight programming language that would allow developers to write once and run everywhere, including microwaves, toasters, fridges, etc.
Ten years ago, in 1999, the Internet Home Alliance was formed, but in the early days it was more sizzle than steak, as it required extensive home wiring. Nonetheless, the M2M vision was being articulated:
“With the coming PC-plus era, Kenney and others expect a proliferation of connected devices. But Kenney says that gadgets aren't the solution. "It's not about more gadgets," he said. "I don't want a smart thermometer; I want simplicity. How about a clock radio that sets the thermometer for you when you turn it off at night? When you wake up, it could turn on the coffee or whatever."
Seven years ago, in 2002, Toshiba announced its Internet fridge, as did LG Electronics. Of course, the $360 billion by 2005 market sizing estimate appears to have been a little off, but the point is that other than trying to control the customer, there’s nothing new in Verizon’s “vision.”
As I listened to the presentations, I found myself wondering why the examples being cited required a WAN technology or licensed spectrum? Isn’t a WLAN technology, like Wi-Fi, a better fit for networking devices of all kinds in the home? Does Verizon think that LTE is going to replace Wi-Fi in the home?
One of the key talking points laid out by Verizon’s marketing department was about having a centralized support number. “Who do you call for support when all these devices are connected?” was one of the week’s mantras, and apparently Verizon’s value proposition.
Why would I pay a wireless carrier to add devices on my home network?
“Five hundred percent” is a great sound bite, but is it in our future?
This morning, I began to catalog the number of wireless Internet devices I have in my home: three laptops, one Netbook, one iPhone, three iPod Touches, one XBOX 360, two Sony PSPs, two EyeFi-enabled cameras, one printer, one backup hard drive, one Wi-Fi radio. Even without the wireless fridge, toaster, microwave, meter reader or washing machine, I’m at 16 Wi-Fi devices. How much does it cost me to connect each of these to the network using Wi-Fi? Nada. Have I ever felt a need to have a single number to call for support? Nope.
Five hundred percent isn’t the future. It’s the present. And I don’t have to have a wireless carrier provision every device. I don’t have to pay a service charge for every device. And I don’t have to worry about buying a new fridge every time I change service providers.
That’s my .02!
Martin Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks, a provider of broadband mesh solutions for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 4.9 GHz Public Safety and 5.9 GHz ITS networks. Previously, Martin was the CEO at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building several high profile alliances with and for leading technology companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com, BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Netscape and Sun.
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