Disruptive Tendencies

AT&T Wi-Fi: How long to a billion?

In October 2007, AT&T acquired Wayport for $275m, and its national footprint of 20,000 Hot Spots in such high-profile locations as Starbucks and McDonalds. For many of us in the industry, this was a seminal event, as it was the first time that a major licensed spectrum holder embraced Wi-Fi (and unlicensed spectrum) as a major piece of its service offering.

Since then, AT&T has continued to be the poster child for its use of Wi-Fi for 3G data offload in areas of cellular congestion. Generally speaking, these locations can be described as areas where people eat, shop and congregate, and includes not only traditional Hot Spot locations, but also high capacity venues, college campuses, special events, and high-foot traffic urban centres.

Today’s announcement of 106.9m connections shows impressive, historic year-over-year growth, but it’s interesting to project forward.

• With over 90m subscribers, this number translates into 1.2 connections/subscriber/quarter.
• With around 30m smartphone users, this number translates into ~1.1 connection/smartphone user/month.

And keep in mind that, with free Wi-Fi at venues like Starbucks, some of these connections are from non-AT&T subscribers, so the number of connections/subscriber is going to be lower.

The following chart shows the number of AT&T Wi-Fi connections, as reported over the past 11 quarters. It’s interesting to note that AT&T has been able to materially impact the slope of the curve. When AT&T and Apple enabled seamless, transparent auto log-on for the iPhone in July 2008, the slope clearly changed. In July 2010, AT&T opened up its Starbucks locations to free Wi-Fi, the slope changed once again.

So how big can it get?

Clearly, one can imagine an AT&T quarterly report touting 1 billion connections (PREDICTION: Q3/2011), a 9X increase from today.

IMO, the biggest obstacle is subscriber mindshare and user intervention. People walk into a Starbucks today, and they know there’s Wi-Fi, so they’ll turn it on. But unless they know there’s Wi-Fi in the football stadium, rocking out at the concert, or walking around Times Square, users are far less likely to have their Wi-Fi radios turned on.

Maybe iOS v5 will be able to sense (or know via GPS) that there is an AT&T SSID nearby, and automatically turn on Wi-Fi, removing user intervention from the Wi-Fi equation totally. Now that would be cool, and welcomed by service providers the world over.

Wi-Fi for service providers? Onwards, and upwards!

One billion connections? Here we come!

 

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter

 

Open Letter to Today's Business School Grad

Kids today have it tough. Sure, they’ve all got laptops, iPhones and have grown up never having used a payphone or wearing a watch, but as Thomas Friedman has pointed out, their world is now flat. Competition for jobs is now global. “Take on the world” now has a literal meaning and an urgency unknown to previous generations.

But having been involved, as an alumnus, with Acadia University administration and Manning School of Business faculty, I have found reason to be optimistic. One of the most gratifying aspects of my involvement has been the opportunity to engage with both students and faculty, and see firsthand how they are adapting to, and taking on this new world.

I’ve been asked by several new grads, for real world, practical advice. So, as a guy with some miles under the tires and some scars, I offer up these thoughts on what it takes to be successful out of the gate.

In no particular order:

Be a sponge – absorb everything that you can – at work, in industry, follow thought leaders, etc.;

Resist the temptation to prove how much you know – people will notice you by your effort and competence, you don’t have to point out how great you are;

Work hard and play hard – but “play hard” is different from university where it meant hitting the pub every night. Whether it’s playing Ultimate, softball or mountain biking, get to know your team members outside of the office;

Volunteer for assignments - “old timers” generally hate working trade shows, but I would try to go to as many as possible. Help with booth set-up/teardown, work the booth, take in the keynotes...It’s a great way to be as current as possible, to build a professional network and to begin to formulate your own opinions about your space;

Be opinionated and passionate, but don’t always feel like you have to “win”...Sometimes it’s about trying to make lemonade from lemons.

Make your boss look good;

Watch the nickels and dimes – you’re spending someone else’s money (investors, shareholders), treat it as your own. Offer to double up at trade shows, as rooms are often the biggest expense;

Be aligned with a profit center, not a cost center – tie yourself to revenue, where you can be measured...When times are tough, cutbacks come first from cost centers, and no matter how “valuable” you think your contributions are, if they can’t be measured and tracked against revenue, you’ll be hard pressed to justify your existence at some point;

Participate in outside meetings – partners, customers, press/analysts...Observe, take notes...But mind the hierarchy;

Remember, that your career is lifelong. I was going to say it’s a marathon, not a sprint, but actually it’s more like a series of wind sprints...You run fast, pause to catch your breath, and then run fast again and again;

Create your own “story” - how did you become passionate about your field, end up at...?

Meet the VCs – tell them your “story”...

And most importantly, remember, “Success has many fathers…” Success truly requires a team that rows in the same direction. Be willing to acknowledge and share the credit for your successes, because whether you believe it or not, you would not have succeeded but for the contributions of others;

Lastly, many forget that the second half of the expression is “...but Failure is an orphan”. Sometimes, you need to own mistakes and/or failures. Resist pointing the finger.

 

Now go take on the world, because you have to!

That’s my .02! What’s yours?

Martin Suter