Disruptive Tendencies

Femtos: Consumer-Subsidized Network Buildout?

(Original posted at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2009/05/femtos-consumer-subsidized-network-buildout.aspx )

Recently, it was reported that the 3GPP, the Femto Forum and the Broadband Forum have reached agreement on standardization issues.

So what is a femto?

Wikipedia defines a femto as: “a small cellular base station, typically designed for use in residential or small business environments. It connects to the service provider’s network via broadband (such as DSL or cable).”

Femtocells are the carriers’ implicit admission that they can’t deliver either the coverage or capacity required for an optimal experience to consumers or enterprises. So, the “answer,” is to shift the network build-out and backhaul costs to consumer.

But aren’t femtos already ubiquitous today? What is an 802.11 AP, if not a femto? T-Mobile “gets it” today, with its UMA service T-Mobile@Home, which allows customers to use Wi-Fi instead of cellular, for calls made from home. It shifts capacity from T-Mobile cell towers to indoor Wi-Fi APs, and the benefit to the consumer is that that they’re not paying for cellular minutes.

Wi-Fi APs deliver wireless capacity throughout homes, enterprises, hotels, venues, retailers, restaurants, airports and Main Streets around the world. Devices of all kind are able to connect seamlessly, and they leverage the existence of wired broadband backhaul.

So another way of looking at it may be that a “femto” is a cellular AP. But if I’ve got a Wi-Fi AP, why would I want or need a femto, especially if it’s something for which I have to pay?

Do you think wireless operators will subsidize femtos? Not a chance. Look at the PVR or modem/gateway model for your answer. Even if you don’t have to fork out the upfront capex, consumers will pay a monthly rental fee to cover the cost of the cellular base station. Once again, the cost burden is shifted to the consumer, but in this case it’s the costs of a network buildout and backhaul.

As a mentor of mine once said, “I can see how that’s good for you, but how’s that good for me?”

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter

Martin Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks, the global market share leader in service provider Wi-Fi, enabling 3G data offload for wireless carriers, quad-play for cable operators, and managed WLAN business services. Previously, Martin was the CEO at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building several high profile alliances with and for leading technology companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com, BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Netscape and Sun.

 

A Cell for all Reasons

(Originally posted at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2009/01/a-cell-for-all-reasons.aspx )

Fortunately, service providers and technology vendors understand the principles previously described. Typically, a network is deployed for coverage in the first instance, by using large (macro) cells. These tend to be mounted on towers with high transmit power and highly sensitive antenna arrays to hear the low powered “whisperers” at the edge of coverage. Of note, however, is that while published 3G data rates (HSDPA) may claim to be in the 1.8mbps to 14.4mbps range, the “real” capacity throughout the cell of a 3G macro-cell base station is around 10mbps, meaning that there’s 10mbps to share across all of the users in the coverage area. Even the much vaunted 4G, with the first release of LTE offering data rates of over 320mbps for downlink and over 170mbps for uplink, has an estimated capacity per macro-cell of ~45mbps. This means that the performance averaged across all users will not (cannot) approach the types of speeds being talked about loosely in the press.

As user density increases, it becomes necessary to add capacity to the system. This is done by sub-dividing macro cells into smaller micro and picocells. Average data rates increase, as more users are able to transmit and receive at higher modulation rates (because they’re closer to the “bullseye”). System capacity increases as a multiple of the [number of cells per cell capacity]. What this means is that it is possible to deliver far greater capacities over a comparable area (greater than 1gbps per square mile!) by shifting to a micro-cell-based network design. But what it also means is that there is a need to have a backhaul strategy that supports both this level of capacity and that which is implementable in the physical location of the micro-cell nodes.

At the complete other end of the spectrum is the emergence of the femtocell. Think of this as a combination of a Linksys style gateway/router with an HSxPA, WiMAX or LTE access radio. The rationale behind this is to extend 5-bar performance indoor, to users in their homes or offices. End users will connect this to their existing cable or DSL connections and be able to use their LTE devices indoor, much as they do with Wi-Fi today. Whether customers feel a need to deploy cellular femtocells when they already have Wi-Fi deployed is an open question and one deserving of consideration.

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks, a provider of broadband mesh solutions for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 4.9 GHz Public Safety and 5.9 GHz ITS networks. Previously, Martin was the CEO at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building several high profile alliances with and for leading technology companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com, BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Netscape and Sun.

 

Mobilizing Web 2.0

(Originally posted at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2008/11/mobilizing-web-2-0.aspx )

The launch of the iPhone by Apple and AT&T in June 2007 was a seminal event in the evolution of the mobile Internet. For the first time, a handheld device delivered much of the usability and functionality that is available to laptop and PC users, in a form factor and interface that people wanted to use. The iPhone allows users to stream YouTube, purchase from the iStore, upload pictures to Facebook, and of course, make plain old phone calls.

Entire ecosystems are being enabled, as we speak, by companies like Apple, Google and RIM Blackberry releasing software development kits (SDKs), and creating a revenue-sharing business model that gives these developers a route to market (Apple App Store). Marquee VCs, like Kleiner Perkins, are committing hundreds of millions of dollars to fund startups focused narrowly on Mobile Web 2.0 application development.

The Mobile Internet is happening. Now.

But all is not idyllic. Many iPhone users report being frustrated by the limitations of current cellular networks. In many respects, it’s analogous to driving your Ferrari over a dirt road. Much of the functionality described above is only available over a Wi-Fi network, when available.

A short-term answer for the Mobile Internet is more ubiquitous Wi-Fi. We’re not advocating blanket, citywide coverage, but rather strategic deployments in areas where it makes sense to do so. This may be as simple as re-thinking the hotspot coverage area — perhaps placing a high-powered, highly sensitive access point on the outside of a location, rather than placing a low-power, enterprise AP inside. Conceivably, this simple step would provide coverage inside the establishment and its patio, just as the indoor AP, but it also could create a “virtual patio” covering about 10 times the area of the indoor AP alone. If you think about it, the location’s SSID could be used as an advertising beacon, pulling in more customers from the surrounding area, not simply serving those customers already inside the establishment.

Other locations where it might make sense to deploy Wi-Fi access include convention centers, hotels and resorts, sporting venues, commuter rail stations and lines, shopping malls, urban cores, multi-tenant dwelling units, etc.

The long-term bet carriers are making is LTE, 4G. In April 2008, the FCC raised $19.6 billion from 4G spectrum auctions and the major LTE equipment providers have agreed on an intellectual property model to accelerate adoption. 4G trials are expected to begin in 2010, with wide-scale rollouts beginning in the 2012 timeframe.

Whether Wi-Fi, WiMAX or LTE, or most likely some combination of all three, the challenge of deploying a network with the capacity capable of delivering applications and content to many of these devices simultaneously, at rates approaching 100mbps, is not trivial. Wireless networks are constrained by the laws of physics, notwithstanding the unfortunate hype that inflates expectations with every new generation of technologies. The infamous WiMAX promise of “70mbps over 70 kilometers” sounded good to the marketing department, but the reality is that this is an either/or proposition. Distance and power dictate data rate. Handheld devices are, by definition, low-powered, range-limited devices. For 4G to deliver on anything approaching its promise, much smaller cells (micro and picocells) will need to be used outdoors, with even smaller femtocells expected to provide an answer indoors, in the home and office.

That’s my .02!

Martin Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks, a provider of broadband mesh solutions for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 4.9 GHz Public Safety and 5.9 GHz ITS networks. Previously, Martin was the CEO at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building several high profile alliances with and for leading technology companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com, BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Netscape and Sun.