(Original published at http://www.von.com/blogs/guest/2009/06/mobile-internet-fundy-esque.aspx )
In 1963, JFK is credited with having observed that, “A rising tide raises all ships.” The evidence is
overwhelming that the mobile Internet tide is unprecedented in scale and
that it’s coming in fast. Anyone, or any company trying to resist,
inevitably will be washed away. The launch of the Palm Pre this past week
has given the industry an opportunity to debate whether the Pre is an
iPhone killer. David Pogue, of the New York Times, has described the
Sprint-Nextel/Palm pairing as “a pair of sad sack losers team up to
defeat the smug athletic golden boy,” going on the suggest that it’s
the “Palm Pre vs. iPhone.” To its credit,
Time presents a much more balanced view, pointing out that “Palm doesn't need to steal any of its competitors'
customers to thrive.” This seems to be the view being (wisely)
espoused by Jon Rubinstein, executive chairman of Palm Inc. as well, who
rightly notes, in the same article, that the smartphone market is
“large and expanding.” Rubinstein is right in suggesting that the
smartphone market is not zero-sum. Yes, there is a heightened need for
device manufacturers to deliver a compelling user experience. Apple has set the bar
extremely high, but the fact remains that there are “4 billion mobile
phones in the world today, after all, and Palm says only about 10% of
them are smart phones. During the next few years, that number may reach
50%. Morgan Stanley Research even described the migration to
Internet-connected mobile devices as ‘one of the biggest opportunities
in the history of the technology industry.’" I would argue
that Apple will continue to maintain its market share on the platform
and device sides even as this market grows for one simple reason:
iTunes. None of the other vendors has delivered a seamless content and
application management platform from the desktop to the device, coupled
with an accepted micro-transaction platform. Microsoft had an
opportunity to do so with Windows Media Player, but was so tied up in
antitrust litigation, it missed the window of opportunity and was left
in the dust. Apple’s the poster child; the
launch of iPhone 3G S makes it even more so. Palm’s the underdog.
But what of the other 800 pound gorillas? “Google: Expect 18 Android Phones by Year’s End,” “BlackBerry Storm 2 could hit as early as June,” “HTC: Touch Pro 2 coming to North America,” “Samsung Unveils World's First 12 Megapixel Camera Phone,”
etc. Throw in Netbooks, gaming devices, cameras and you’ve got a
rising tide of mobile data that is unprecedented. Dare I say, it is even
Fundy-esque*! That’s my .02! Martin Suter (*Canada’s
Bay of Fundy purportedly has the highest tides in the world.) Martin
Suter is vice president of business development at BelAir Networks,
the global market share leader in service provider Wi-Fi, enabling 3G
data offload for wireless carriers, quad-play for cable operators, and
managed WLAN business services. Previously, Martin was the CEO
at Cohda Wireless, where he raised the company’s profile and negotiated a
licensing deal with a Fortune 100 vendor in its core franchise. Prior
to Cohda, he was vice president of business development at MeshNetworks
Inc., a classic tech transfer/disruptive technology success story that
achieved a major liquidity event for its investors in Q4/2004 with its
acquisition by Motorola. Martin also was responsible for building
several high profile alliances with and for leading technology
companies, including Fujitsu, Microsoft, Netscape, Sun Microsystems, and
Teradata. Additionally, Martin has successfully negotiated technology
transfer, distribution and/or licensing deals with companies like 3Com,
BioChem Pharma, Dow Chemical, Exodus, Fujitsu, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola,
Netscape and Sun.
